Adobe’s 2026 holiday forecast, released on 28 September, projects US online sales of $275.1 billion between 1 November and 31 December, up 6.7% year on year. Cyber Week, the five days from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, is expected to generate $47.5 billion. Cyber Monday is forecast to reach $15.1 billion, while Black Friday is expected to grow faster, rising 9.2% to $12.9 billion.
Alongside those headline figures, Adobe highlights shoppers using seasonal discounts to stock up on essentials. For merchants selling everyday products, that is a reason to look beyond gift-led peak season planning.
The forecast covers US online retail. UK merchants should treat it as a planning signal to assess against their own sales and customer data, rather than a prediction of equivalent UK demand.
The essentials stockpiling pattern
Adobe expects Cyber Week online sales in several essentials categories to rise compared with average sales levels in September 2026:
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Personal hygiene products: up 150%;
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Clothing basics: up 210%;
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Baby products: up 113%;
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Pet products: up 93%;
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Household cleaning products: up 49%.
These are forecast increases against a September baseline, not year-on-year growth rates. They also do not establish what proportion of holiday spending will go towards essentials.
Adobe’s interpretation is that shoppers will use seasonal deals to replenish everyday products alongside buying gifts. That gives merchants a reason to consider replenishment purchases in their peak season plans, without assuming that gift demand is being replaced.
What this means for product strategy
Gift collections remain useful, but merchants selling essentials should also make everyday products easy to find. On Tap recommends assessing three opportunities against your product range, customer behaviour and margins:
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Merchandising: add relevant “stock up and save” collections alongside gift guides. Multi-buy offers, bundles and clearly displayed unit prices can help customers compare replenishment options;
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Discount strategy: plan gift and essentials promotions around their respective economics. Curated gift bundles can support discovery, while essentials offers can emphasise value across multiple purchases. Assess each offer after discounts, fulfilment costs and expected margin;
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Subscriptions: where products suit repeat purchasing, test subscription offers alongside one-off bulk purchases. Make the ongoing price, delivery frequency and cancellation terms clear, and assess whether customers continue beyond the introductory offer.
A seasonal bulk purchase does not automatically indicate interest in a subscription. The opportunity is to offer a relevant repeat-purchase option and measure whether it attracts customers profitably.
What this means for operations
If essentials promotions encourage customers to buy more items at once, the effects can extend beyond merchandising. On Tap recommends checking fulfilment, inventory and returns assumptions before committing to offers.
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Fulfilment costs: model representative multi-buy baskets using their packed weight, dimensions and destination. Larger baskets can cost more to ship, but the impact depends on the products and carrier tariff. For US domestic fulfilment, USPS’s announced holiday price changes vary by service, weight and zone. Its separate transportation-related price announcement specified an 8% increase in base postage for selected services. Check the applicable tariff rather than applying a flat combined surcharge. UK operations should use their own carrier rates and contracts;
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Inventory allocation: review everyday products alongside gift lines, using your sales history, planned promotions, supplier lead times and stock availability. Adobe’s category forecasts do not predict demand for individual products, so they should inform scenarios rather than determine stock increases;
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Returns planning: model returns using your own category-level data and policies. A different sales mix could change the overall return rate, but Adobe’s forecast does not establish that essentials purchases will reduce returns.
The operational question is how your proposed offers change basket composition and contribution margin, not simply whether they increase order value.
What to do before 1 November
For merchants preparing for the November–December peak season, On Tap recommends the following checks:
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Audit category architecture: make relevant essentials and consumables easy to find alongside gift collections;
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Review promotional economics: assess gift and essentials offers separately, including the margin left after discounts and fulfilment;
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Model shipping costs: test multi-buy baskets and check whether your free delivery threshold remains commercially viable;
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Review essentials inventory: identify products that warrant additional stock using your own demand evidence and supplier capacity;
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Test subscription offers: include a clear repeat-purchase option where it suits the product, then track uptake and retention.
The holiday season remains an important period for gifts. Adobe’s forecast also highlights a replenishment opportunity that merchants selling essentials should assess before finalising their plans.
About On Tap
On Tap is a growth-focused eCommerce consultancy helping mid-market and enterprise merchants develop peak season strategies around customer demand and commercial performance.
From category architecture and promotional planning to the operational implications of larger baskets, On Tap helps merchants assess how their eCommerce experience supports both gift purchases and everyday shopping.
If you want to stress-test your peak season plan against Adobe’s forecast, get in touch.
