A fifth of shoppers will use BNPL more this holiday season: what eCommerce merchants should review before Cyber Week

The 2026 Consumer fAmong the newer payment methods included in the studyHoliday Spending Study from the Electronic Transactions Association (ETA) and TSG shows a divided holiday payments market.

Twenty percent of US consumers expect to use buy now, pay later more often this holiday season than last year. Another 25% expect similar usage, while 47% don't plan to use BNPL at all.

That split matters because merchants aren't choosing between "BNPL" and "no BNPL". They're building a checkout for customers with very different payment preferences.

The wider study makes that point even clearer. Seventy-two percent say the ability to pay how they want is extremely important when making an online gift purchase, while 57% report some negative consequence when a merchant doesn't accept their preferred payment method.

For eCommerce merchants heading into Cyber Week, the priority is therefore payment choice: make BNPL easy to find for shoppers who want it without allowing one financing option to dominate a checkout that needs to serve everyone.

The data that matters

ETA and TSG surveyed 1,099 US adults between 8 and 13 September 2026, with a reported margin of error of ±3% at a 95% confidence level.

The BNPL findings show both meaningful demand and clear resistance.

Among consumers who view BNPL favourably:

• 52% use it to manage large expenses;

• 45% use it for unexpected expenses;

• 34% value the ability to avoid interest;

• 27% cite an easy checkout experience.

Among consumers who view it unfavourably:

• 73% don't like accruing debt;

• 55% are concerned about potentially high fees and interest;

• 40% don't like the risk of overspending;

• 29% prefer credit cards.

The study's overall sentiment data is almost evenly divided: 37% view BNPL favourably and 36% unfavourably.

That makes transparency particularly important. BNPL can provide useful flexibility for one customer while another shopper actively wants to avoid financing.

Millennials are the most favourable generation

BNPL sentiment also varies by age.

The study found:

• Millennials: 47% favourable;

• Gen Z: 39%;

• Gen X: 38%;

• Baby Boomers: 24%.

Millennials also show the highest frequency of BNPL usage among the generations measured.

That doesn't mean merchants targeting millennials should make BNPL the centre of their checkout. It does mean BNPL relevance should be assessed against the merchant's actual customer mix rather than assumptions that the payment method is primarily a Gen Z behaviour.

Middle-income shoppers show the strongest sentiment

Income produces a smaller difference.

Forty percent of middle-income respondents view BNPL favourably, compared with 35% of both lower-income and higher-income consumers.

The study itself frames BNPL less as a product used exclusively during financial hardship and more as a budgeting and cash-flow tool, while stressing the importance of transparent terms and responsible usage.

That distinction matters heading into a holiday season when 44% of respondents say they're more financially stressed than last year and 57% are concerned about managing their budget.

BNPL is relevant, but it isn't the whole payment strategy

The planned usage results show:

• 20% will use BNPL more often than last holiday season;

• 25% expect to use it about the same amount;

• 9% expect to use it less;

• 47% don't plan to use it.

BNPL therefore remains relevant at holiday checkout, particularly for higher-ticket purchases, but it isn't a universally preferred payment method.

The wider payment data reinforces that point.

Among the newer payment methods included in the study, 81% of consumers use tap-to-pay regularly, compared with 61% for digital wallets, 60% for peer-to-peer apps and 21% for BNPL. Repeat usage among those who have tried each method is higher across the board: 89% for tap-to-pay, 80% for digital wallets, 78% for peer-to-peer apps and 57% for BNPL.

Trial levels differ sharply too. Thirty-seven percent reported trying BNPL in the previous year, compared with 91% for tap-to-pay, 76% for peer-to-peer apps and 75% for digital wallets.

That doesn’t mean BNPL adoption has stopped growing. It does show that merchants shouldn’t evaluate BNPL in isolation from the rest of the payment experience.

Offer BNPL without making assumptions about non-users

The fact that 47% don't plan to use BNPL does not mean those customers will abandon a checkout simply because BNPL is visible.

The survey doesn't measure that behaviour.

What it does show is that payment preferences differ considerably, and that customers value the ability to pay in the way that suits them.

The better approach is to make BNPL easy for interested shoppers to identify without obscuring other commonly used options such as cards and digital wallets.

Actions to take:

• Check visibility: make sure customers who want BNPL can identify it without searching through an unnecessarily complex payment flow;

• Keep payment choice clear: don't remove or de-emphasise other payment methods solely to promote financing;

• Use accurate terminology: clearly show the provider and financing option instead of using vague language around deferred payment;

• Review the terms customers see: interest, fees, payment schedules and eligibility differ by provider and product, so promotional messaging should match the actual offer available at checkout.

The goal is choice, not forcing every shopper into the same payment behaviour.

Use instalment messaging where the purchase justifies it

The strongest reason favourable consumers give for using BNPL is managing large expenses.

That supports showing instalment information earlier in the buying journey for products where spreading the cost is genuinely relevant.

Product detail pages are the most obvious place.

For an eligible higher-value product, showing the available instalment structure alongside the total price can help customers understand their payment options before they reach checkout.

But there shouldn't be a universal price threshold.

Whether BNPL messaging is useful at £100, £200 or £500 depends on:

• average order value;

• category;

• provider eligibility;

• customer profile;

• financing terms;

• merchant fees;

• the size and frequency of instalments.

A low-value accessory may not need prominent financing messaging simply because the provider technically supports it.

Action: Review the product groups where BNPL usage is commercially relevant, then test provider-approved instalment messaging on those product pages rather than adding it indiscriminately across the catalogue.

Why “provider-approved” matters in the UK: Since 15 July 2026, deferred payment credit (the FCA’s term for most BNPL products) has been a regulated activity. Merchants that are not themselves FCA-authorised and that promote a third-party BNPL product must have those financial promotions approved by an authorised firm, usually the BNPL provider. Ask your provider which assets are already approved before publishing any instalment messaging. This is a vendor and regulatory requirement, separate from the recommendations in this article.

Use customer data to decide how prominent BNPL should be

The generational and income findings can help merchants understand where BNPL is likely to have greater relevance.

They shouldn't be used to select a BNPL provider by demographic alone.

Provider selection involves other operational factors, including:

• customer eligibility and geographic coverage;

• payment-plan structure;

• merchant fees;

• payout and settlement terms;

• refund handling;

• platform integration;

• customer familiarity with the provider.

Your own payments data should carry more weight than the national average.

A merchant with high BNPL adoption should treat it differently from a business where customers overwhelmingly choose cards or wallets, even if the two businesses sell to similar age groups.

Action: Review current payment-method usage, average order value and conversion by device or market before changing checkout prominence for Cyber Week.

What eCommerce merchants should audit before Cyber Week

The broader ETA and TSG findings provide a useful reason to review the complete payments experience.

When a merchant doesn't accept a shopper's preferred payment method, 24% say they would look for the same product elsewhere and 7% would abandon or postpone the purchase. Another 26% would use another method but be less likely to return.

That makes payment availability a conversion and retention issue, not simply a checkout configuration.

Actions to take:

• Review your payment mix: check actual card, wallet and BNPL usage rather than assuming which options customers prefer;

• Test BNPL end to end: complete the payment journey across desktop and mobile, including approval, redirect or embedded flows, order confirmation and returns;

• Check product-page messaging: make sure instalment examples match what customers can actually access through the provider;

• Review mobile presentation: confirm that payment choices remain understandable and usable on smaller screens;

• Check refund workflows: understand how full and partial refunds are handled between your commerce platform and BNPL provider;

• Review peak promotions: make sure promotional pricing and financing messaging remain accurate when discounts change;

• Monitor after launch: compare BNPL selection, checkout completion, average order value and refund behaviour rather than assuming availability automatically improves conversion.

The bigger picture

The study doesn't show that half of shoppers want BNPL.

It shows a more useful picture.

Twenty percent expect to increase their use this holiday season, 25% expect similar usage and 47% won't use it. Overall sentiment is almost evenly split.

At the same time, payment choice matters widely. Seventy-two percent of respondents say the ability to pay how they want is important for online gift purchases, and more than half report some negative consequence when their preferred payment method isn't available.

For merchants, BNPL therefore belongs inside a broader payment strategy.

The objective isn't to make every customer use instalments. It's to remove unnecessary payment friction for customers who want financing while keeping cards, wallets and other preferred methods equally easy to use.

Conclusion

BNPL has a meaningful role in the 2026 holiday checkout, but the ETA and TSG data don't support treating it as the default payment experience.

The stronger lesson is payment flexibility.

Merchants should understand which customers use BNPL, where instalment messaging helps the purchase decision, and how the financing option performs alongside cards and digital wallets.

Before Cyber Week, test the full payment mix rather than optimising around one method.

Customers who want BNPL should be able to find it easily. Customers who don't should be able to complete their purchase without it becoming a distraction.

That balance is what turns payment choice into a better checkout experience.

About On Tap

On Tap is a growth-focused eCommerce consultancy helping mid-market and enterprise merchants improve their digital commerce operations, from checkout and payment optimisation to customer experience, integrations and ongoing performance improvements.

If you want to review your payment setup or checkout experience before peak trading, get in touch.